Monday, October 28, 2013

Most Important Macro Indicators (IMHO)

  • Trade Balance = Exports - Imports [Balance of Payments]
  • Current Account Balance = Trade Balance - Net Income from Abroad - Net Current Transfers [Balance of Payments]
  • GDP Per Capita [Real Economy]
  • GDP Growth Rate [Economic Growth]
  • Purchasing Power Parity - e.g. Big Mac Index - 
  • Government Budget Balance / GDP [Public Budget Figure]

 Some unusual but good indicators:
  • Lipstick Index: When finances are tight, consumers will forego large luxury purchases for smaller indulgences, like cosmetics.
  • Men's Underwear: If cosmetics are the small luxuries of tough times, men's underwear is the opposite: a basic necessity whose purchase can be pushed into the future until more disposable funds are available. Rarely seen, rarely replaced.
  • Divorce Rates: Financial problems strain a marriage, and make it more likely to break apart. 
  • Baby Diaper Rash Indicator: In a hope to save money, parents with newborns, babies, and toddlers try to cut back on costs by changing their child’s diaper fewer times throughout the day.

Stages of Organizational Growth and Their Critical Phases

 Steinmetz, Lawrence L. "Critical stages of small business growth: when they occur and how to survive them." Business horizons 12.1 (1969): 29-36.