Friday, May 5, 2017

ATLI: "Avci Turkish Lira Index"

In 2012 Turkey has chosen a new symbol for its currency

To terminate the redundant and head-achy debate whether Turkish lira is losing its value or US dollar is trumpeting brutally, I decided introduce a measure of the value of the Turkish lira relative to some foreign currencies. I allowed myself to name it ATLI; no pun intended.

WSJ Dollar index inspired me. It calculates the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies using a remarkable methodology. WSJ Dollar index even captures the impact of capital flows on currency volumes, a significant determinant of currency market activity; i.e. it is weighted on total foreign exchange trading volume.

ATLI is not as scientific and dynamic as WSJ Dollar index, under-engineered rather. I simply don't have the time, focus and intention to design a premium metric and keep it consistently up-to-date. Data enthusiasts can take it over and rectify. They should then call it ATLI-S or even ATLI-S+ if they can manage to integrate some Greek letters to make it seem sophisticated.

ATLI tracks seven foreign currencies, including US dollar (USD), euro (EUR), yen (JPY), pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). Why 7? Because it's my favorite single-digit number. The historical data of these currencies were easy to find; plus, these also have been the top 7 most traded currencies by value for such a long time. Currently the list is dépassé (yes, China), but being a maverick I will stand behind the decision of using this outdated list.

For the initial introductory analysis v.1.0.0 I sluggishly took the average of the seven currencies. The basket can be adjusted, of course. For example, if one wants to isolate the US dollar from the equation, the US dollar can be disregarded and by doing that TRY's relative value against the six other remaining currencies can be computed. I would call it ATLI Lite. Similarly, new currencies can be included, weighting can be build-in etc. As creativity is unstoppable, options are endless. The version I present here sets up a rock-solid foundation.

Without any further self-promotion here are some charts followed by the data:








DateUSD/TRYEUR/TRYJPY/TRYGBP/TRYCAD/TRYSEK/TRYCHF/TRYATLI
Apr-970.13560.15260.00110.22020.09700.01730.09200.1023
May-970.14120.16110.00120.23170.10250.01820.09980.1080
Jun-970.14850.16730.00130.24730.10750.01920.10160.1132
Jul-970.16000.17170.00130.26250.11610.02000.10580.1196
Aug-970.16760.18230.00140.27160.12070.02120.11230.1253
Sep-970.17420.19370.00140.28200.12610.02300.12040.1316
Oct-970.18420.21050.00150.30830.13080.02450.13170.1416
Nov-970.19570.21980.00150.33060.13750.02530.13720.1497
Dec-970.20750.22810.00160.34190.14510.02620.14190.1560
Jan-980.21870.23600.00170.35730.15050.02700.14810.1628
Feb-980.23110.25150.00180.38000.16230.02890.15760.1733
Mar-980.24310.26180.00180.40670.17130.03040.15960.1821
Apr-980.25000.27550.00190.41780.17470.03230.16650.1884
May-980.25830.28490.00190.42120.17730.03290.17420.1929
Jun-980.26640.29180.00190.44430.18160.03340.17500.1992
Jul-980.27130.30100.00190.44330.17930.03420.18220.2019
Aug-980.27730.31340.00200.46660.17700.03470.19360.2092
Sep-980.27750.32730.00200.47130.18140.03530.20130.2137
Oct-980.28810.34250.00250.48250.18670.03700.21320.2218
Nov-980.30370.35230.00250.50050.19790.03730.21780.2303
Dec-980.31540.36970.00280.52170.20590.03880.22950.2406
Jan-990.33360.37920.00290.54900.22080.04270.23570.2520
Feb-990.35390.39020.00300.56730.23430.04330.24460.2624
Mar-990.37290.40160.00310.60070.24740.04520.25170.2747
Apr-990.39230.41470.00330.63140.26930.04660.25740.2878
May-990.40680.42400.00330.65210.27600.04740.26640.2966
Jun-990.42210.43720.00350.66590.28840.05000.27270.3057
Jul-990.42920.45950.00370.69600.28480.05230.28800.3162
Aug-990.44550.47060.00410.71440.29860.05410.29410.3259
Sep-990.46100.49250.00430.75960.31420.05660.30810.3423
Oct-990.48080.50730.00460.79020.32660.05870.31630.3549
Nov-990.51800.52270.00510.82810.35140.06090.32630.3732
Dec-990.54240.54650.00530.87770.37490.06380.34100.3931
Jan-000.55970.54260.00520.90430.38650.06310.33770.3999
Feb-000.57430.55400.00520.90660.39580.06570.34500.4067
Mar-000.58910.56330.00560.93800.40650.06820.35390.4178
Apr-000.61130.55770.00570.94870.41300.06850.35600.4230
May-000.61570.57750.00570.92430.41140.06880.36620.4242
Jun-000.62040.59100.00580.94130.41880.07060.37960.4325
Jul-000.63520.58840.00580.95250.42710.06930.38020.4369
Aug-000.65510.58230.00610.94850.44490.06950.37620.4404
Sep-000.66460.58740.00610.98070.44200.06890.38530.4479
Oct-000.68230.57950.00630.98840.44790.06830.37940.4503
Nov-000.68270.59560.00620.97420.44430.06820.39480.4523
Dec-000.67030.63170.00591.00270.44690.07120.41620.4635
Jan-010.67520.63230.00580.98810.45080.07130.41290.4623
Feb-010.95500.88180.00811.37960.62120.09740.57190.6450
Mar-011.04500.91730.00831.47960.66300.10030.60010.6877
Apr-011.14551.01730.00931.64070.74610.11180.66060.7616
May-011.17000.98970.00981.65940.76070.10840.65120.7642
Jun-011.26501.07530.01021.79110.83440.11650.70510.8282
Jul-011.33001.16530.01061.89510.86730.12580.77030.8806
Aug-011.37001.25000.01151.99180.88320.13180.82460.9233
Sep-011.54001.40400.01292.27070.97520.14420.95061.0425
Oct-011.59751.43740.01302.32341.00580.14980.97741.0721
Nov-011.47901.32590.01202.10620.94020.13890.90100.9862
Dec-011.45001.29180.01102.10900.91020.13870.87390.9692
Jan-021.30701.12210.00971.84370.82240.12250.75990.8553
Feb-021.39651.21300.01051.97740.87220.13380.82250.9180
Mar-021.34751.17480.01021.92130.84450.13000.80100.8899
Apr-021.34101.20720.01041.95450.85550.13090.82930.9041
May-021.43951.34430.01162.09310.94200.14770.91710.9851
Jun-021.58251.56950.01322.42681.04190.17281.06851.1250
Jul-021.69001.65200.01412.64271.06660.17841.13791.1974
Aug-021.63001.60070.01382.52631.04540.17361.08741.1539
Sep-021.65501.63320.01362.59621.04280.17891.12101.1772
Oct-021.67701.66140.01372.62421.07590.18331.13561.1959
Nov-021.53851.53020.01262.39560.98290.16991.03771.0953
Dec-021.66001.74320.01402.67481.05600.19111.20161.2201
Jan-031.65001.77690.01382.71901.08570.19221.21021.2354
Feb-031.59701.72440.01352.51341.07660.18801.18021.1847
Mar-031.71551.87400.01452.71621.16880.20311.27041.2804
Apr-031.56571.75090.01322.50291.09470.19201.15581.1822
May-031.42901.68440.01202.33841.04550.18451.10131.1136
Jun-031.42001.63460.01192.34941.05450.17811.05121.0999
Jul-031.42341.59860.01182.29221.01230.17321.03871.0786
Aug-031.40181.53920.01202.21131.01070.16751.00151.0491
Sep-031.38981.62050.01252.30891.02770.17931.05481.0848
Oct-031.48441.71950.01352.51611.12460.18951.10741.1650
Nov-031.46351.75530.01342.52071.12500.19391.13341.1722
Dec-031.40261.76560.01312.50461.08310.19491.13091.1564
Jan-041.34101.67210.01272.44491.01200.18161.06601.1043
Feb-041.32701.65740.01222.47890.99460.17951.05121.1001
Mar-041.31351.61760.01262.42451.00290.17411.03771.0833
Apr-041.42061.70220.01292.52741.03690.18581.09511.1401
May-041.48951.81510.01362.72821.09330.19961.18751.2181
Jun-041.48551.81040.01362.70261.11440.19761.18901.2162
Jul-041.46801.76450.01322.67181.10240.19131.14541.1938
Aug-041.50201.83060.01382.70711.14440.20041.18601.2263
Sep-041.50401.86980.01372.72501.19180.20661.20671.2454
Oct-041.47151.88130.01392.70451.20800.20811.23161.2456
Nov-041.43151.90290.01392.73551.20740.21311.25581.2514
Dec-041.34851.82830.01322.58721.12100.20261.18361.1835
Jan-051.33551.74070.01292.51551.07650.19101.12301.1422
Feb-051.28301.69830.01232.46631.04030.18741.10461.1132
Mar-051.35251.75320.01262.55631.11840.19131.13051.1593
Apr-051.39151.79130.01332.65561.10520.19501.16391.1880
May-051.36451.67970.01262.48041.08790.18331.09341.1288
Jun-051.33051.61020.01202.38371.08570.17041.03791.0901
Jul-051.32591.60830.01182.32971.08470.17101.02891.0800
Aug-051.34501.66030.01222.42591.13170.17801.07341.1181
Sep-051.34651.61980.01192.37511.15760.17381.04101.1037
Oct-051.35151.62020.01162.39271.14370.16981.04851.1054
Nov-051.35651.59920.01132.34671.16360.16811.03141.0967
Dec-051.35051.59940.01142.32471.16170.17001.02801.0923
Jan-061.32281.60790.01132.35541.16070.17431.03591.0955
Feb-061.31401.56660.01142.30491.15610.16601.00151.0743
Mar-061.34451.62940.01142.33671.15080.17261.03121.0967
Apr-061.32251.67120.01162.41601.18390.17991.06761.1218
May-061.57352.01600.01402.94241.42880.21751.29111.3547
Jun-061.58252.02390.01382.92401.41650.21971.29441.3535
Jul-061.49761.91150.01312.79691.32320.20771.21611.2809
Aug-061.46471.87580.01252.78961.32720.20211.18971.2659
Sep-061.51451.91920.01282.83561.35440.20651.21091.2934
Oct-061.45721.85980.01252.77981.29820.20181.17141.2544
Nov-061.45381.92500.01262.85711.27360.21221.21281.2781
Dec-061.41551.86830.01192.77211.21460.20671.16161.2358
Jan-071.40651.83320.01172.76261.19580.20241.13111.2205
Feb-071.41301.87010.01192.77551.20880.20211.15931.2344
Mar-071.39201.85940.01182.73981.20700.19951.14511.2221
Apr-071.36451.86200.01142.72861.23020.20371.13011.2186
May-071.31751.77240.01082.60961.23070.19051.07541.1724
Jun-071.31251.77730.01072.63711.23200.19221.07451.1766
Jul-071.28431.75600.01082.60551.20330.19071.06901.1600
Aug-071.30021.77220.01122.62041.23150.18851.07571.1714
Sep-071.20711.72280.01052.47101.21540.18761.03681.1216
Oct-071.16491.68690.01012.42481.19940.18351.00611.0965
Nov-071.18351.73170.01062.43481.18340.18531.04521.1106
Dec-071.16781.70380.01052.31851.17520.18051.03011.0838
Jan-081.17151.74160.01102.32981.16710.18411.08441.0985
Feb-081.22051.85280.01182.42521.23400.19801.17241.1592
Mar-081.33472.10540.01342.63821.30090.22371.34331.2799
Apr-081.27471.99070.01232.53261.26560.21281.23081.2171
May-081.21891.89590.01162.41631.23200.20301.16941.1639
Jun-081.22371.92810.01152.43871.19840.20351.19891.1718
Jul-081.16161.81220.01082.30431.13490.19191.10891.1035
Aug-081.18451.73810.01092.15731.11350.18351.07541.0662
Sep-081.27651.80040.01202.27471.19920.18501.14021.1269
Oct-081.54221.96370.01572.47841.27190.19831.33201.2575
Nov-081.56521.98730.01642.40971.26670.19341.28951.2469
Dec-081.54052.15360.01702.25111.26600.19701.44281.2669
Jan-091.64332.10060.01832.38381.33940.19621.41481.2995
Feb-091.70012.15390.01742.43271.33530.18871.45241.3258
Mar-091.66202.20230.01682.38081.31800.20151.45811.3199
Apr-091.59822.11390.01622.36381.33850.19801.40051.2899
May-091.53562.17350.01612.48541.40780.20351.43951.3231
Jun-091.54152.16360.01602.53841.32580.19981.41951.3149
Jul-091.47112.09630.01552.45971.36480.20461.37671.2841
Aug-091.50052.15020.01612.44411.37070.21071.41631.3012
Sep-091.48392.17180.01652.37461.38790.21291.43221.2971
Oct-091.50642.21710.01672.47681.38890.21241.46741.3265
Nov-091.52822.29370.01772.51431.44760.21911.52031.3630
Dec-091.50022.14800.01612.42301.42600.20961.44851.3102
Jan-101.49702.07530.01662.39561.39930.20261.41121.2854
Feb-101.54672.10750.01742.35901.46890.21771.44041.3082
Mar-101.51922.05270.01632.30681.49630.21091.44131.2919
Apr-101.48971.98100.01592.27491.46410.20561.38241.2591
May-101.57411.93710.01732.28881.50620.20141.36281.2697
Jun-101.58691.94170.01792.37211.49060.20401.47271.2980
Jul-101.50771.96720.01742.36481.46420.20901.44741.2825
Aug-101.52671.93690.01812.34381.43450.20691.50491.2817
Sep-101.44821.97430.01732.27551.40720.21481.47431.2588
Oct-101.43301.99900.01782.29861.40640.21501.45901.2613
Nov-101.50491.95340.01802.34051.46590.21401.49811.2850
Dec-101.54192.06290.01902.40561.53420.22961.65091.3492
Jan-111.60452.19590.01952.57041.60260.24851.70011.4202
Feb-111.59862.20640.01952.59911.64520.25251.72061.4346
Mar-111.54542.18920.01862.47791.59280.24441.68241.3930
Apr-111.52112.25150.01872.54081.61040.25131.75711.4216
May-111.59392.29460.01952.62231.64540.25841.86681.4716
Jun-111.62062.35080.02012.60051.68220.25631.92851.4942
Jul-111.68872.43110.02202.77291.76780.26932.14971.5859
Aug-111.71622.46770.02242.79121.75590.27062.13051.5935
Sep-111.85992.48970.02412.89841.77130.27092.04801.6232
Oct-111.77102.45430.02262.85001.77230.27232.01921.5945
Nov-111.82942.45930.02362.87091.79460.27042.00221.6072
Dec-111.88502.44070.02452.92881.84880.27332.00961.6301
Jan-121.77732.32440.02332.79991.77220.26121.93051.5555
Feb-121.74912.33090.02152.78451.76790.26431.93421.5503
Mar-121.78252.37860.02152.85441.78620.26951.97561.5812
Apr-121.75652.32560.02202.85121.77920.26121.93571.5616
May-121.86612.30610.02382.87691.80600.25691.92131.5796
Jun-121.80972.29110.02272.84271.78000.26141.90791.5593
Jul-121.79512.20870.02302.81391.78960.26401.83841.5332
Aug-121.81862.28730.02322.88571.84340.27451.90411.5767
Sep-121.79642.30980.02312.90421.82720.27361.91121.5779
Oct-121.79362.32450.02252.89301.79380.27031.92491.5747
Nov-121.78732.32100.02172.86361.79890.26871.92871.5700
Dec-121.78372.35380.02062.89261.79380.27411.94671.5807
Jan-131.75892.38840.01922.78911.76370.27661.93241.5612
Feb-131.79852.34810.01942.72751.74510.27821.92011.5481
Mar-131.80902.31910.01922.75111.77810.27721.90551.5513
Apr-131.79302.36080.01842.78511.78000.27661.92951.5634
May-131.87562.43810.01872.85081.80730.28341.96361.6053
Jun-131.92882.50940.01952.93421.83360.28772.04161.6507
Jul-131.93532.57430.01982.94321.88310.29702.08931.6774
Aug-132.04032.69770.02083.16441.93630.30822.19401.7660
Sep-132.01862.73040.02053.26731.95790.31402.23061.7913
Oct-131.99602.71140.02033.20211.91350.30802.20131.7647
Nov-132.01982.74510.01973.30591.90280.30762.22871.7899
Dec-132.14582.94960.02043.55302.02000.33332.40271.9178
Jan-142.26073.04900.02223.71562.03140.34532.49411.9883
Feb-142.20933.04930.02173.69961.99670.34482.51071.9760
Mar-142.14072.94800.02073.56711.93730.33062.41971.9092
Apr-142.11252.92940.02073.56441.92730.32492.39871.8968
May-142.09712.85860.02063.51301.93410.31352.34301.8685
Jun-142.11912.90150.02093.62481.98580.31712.38951.9084
Jul-142.14182.86770.02083.61661.96390.31052.35711.8969
Aug-142.16392.84180.02083.59181.98920.30952.35631.8962
Sep-142.27822.87780.02083.69372.03430.31582.38501.9437
Oct-142.22402.78560.01983.55791.97410.30082.30951.8817
Nov-142.21962.76380.01873.47331.94450.29752.29841.8594
Dec-142.33452.82450.01953.63602.00890.29942.34801.9244
Jan-152.44642.76150.02083.68641.92150.29572.65591.9697
Feb-152.50882.80890.02103.87212.00580.30062.63172.0213
Mar-152.59782.78770.02163.84942.04740.30102.67102.0394
Apr-152.67232.99940.02244.10222.21290.32082.86582.1708
May-152.66302.92610.02154.07192.13930.31252.83212.1381
Jun-152.68162.98680.02194.21272.14650.32372.86662.1771
Jul-152.77103.04480.02244.32942.11700.32132.86852.2106
Aug-152.91483.26890.02404.47212.21880.34403.01432.3224
Sep-153.02573.38180.02524.57762.27240.36163.10902.3933
Oct-152.91513.20810.02424.49772.22900.34152.95052.3094
Nov-152.91313.07740.02374.38612.18010.33372.83192.2494
Dec-152.91773.16860.02424.30042.10800.34542.91182.2537
Jan-162.95533.20270.02444.21052.11500.34442.88832.2487
Feb-162.96543.22430.02634.12662.19010.34612.96992.2641
Mar-162.81703.20570.02504.04572.16590.34702.92912.2194
Apr-162.79553.20250.02634.08522.22700.34802.91282.2282
May-162.94953.28340.02664.27022.25260.35392.96842.3007
Jun-162.87773.19570.02793.83062.22650.34022.94822.2067
Jul-162.98833.33910.02933.95232.29340.34943.08292.2907
Aug-162.95803.30050.02863.88622.25700.34563.00642.2546
Sep-162.99923.37140.02963.89202.28440.34983.08712.2876
Oct-163.09393.39740.02953.78812.30720.34263.12802.2981
Nov-163.43703.63910.03004.29842.55820.37253.37752.5304
Dec-163.52773.70970.03024.35262.62610.38723.46402.5854
Jan-173.77344.07450.03354.74632.89590.43163.81382.8241
Feb-173.64723.85760.03234.51542.74230.40363.62622.6892
Mar-173.63523.87220.03264.56382.73060.40533.62392.6948
Apr-173.55163.87020.03184.59952.60150.40123.56882.6607
May-173.55453.90360.03164.59572.58510.40203.60272.6679